S.V. Rasskazov1,2, E.P. Chebykin1,3, A.M. Ilyasova1, S.V. Snopkov2, S.A. Bornyakov1, I.S. Chuvashova1,2
1Institute of the Earth's Crust, Siberian Branch of RAS, Irkutsk, Russia
2Irkutsk State University, Irkutsk, Russia
3Limnological Institute, Siberian Branch of RAS, Irkutsk, Russia
Rasskazov Sergei Vasilievich,
doctor of geological and mineralogical sciences, professor,
664003 Irkutsk, st. Lenina, 3,
Irkutsk State University, Faculty of Geology,
Head of the Department of Dynamic Geology,
664033 Irkutsk, st. Lermontova, 128,
Institute of the Earth's Crust SB RAS,
Head of the Laboratory of Isotopy and Geochronology,
tel.: (3952) 51–16–59,
email: rassk@crust.irk.ru.
Chebykin Evgeny Pavlovich,
Candidate of Chemical Sciences, Senior Researcher,
664033 Irkutsk, st. Lermontova, d. 128,
Institute of the Earth's Crust SB RAS,
664033 Irkutsk, st. Ulan-Batorskaya, 3,
Limnological Institute SB RAS,
email: epcheb@yandex.ru.
Ilyasova Aigul Maratovna,
candidate of geological and mineralogical sciences, leading engineer,
664033 Irkutsk, st. Lermontova, d. 128,
Institute of the Earth's Crust SB RAS,
email: ila@crust.irk.ru.
Snopkov Sergey Viktorovich,
Candidate of Geological and Mineralogical Sciences, Associate Prof.
664003 Irkutsk, st. Lenina, 3,
Irkutsk State University, Faculty of Geology,
email: snopkov_serg@mail.ru.
Bornyakov Sergey Alexandrovich,
candidate of geological and mineralogical sciences,
664033 Irkutsk, st. Lermontova, d. 128,
Institute of the Earth's Crust SB RAS,
Senior Researcher,
email: bonyak@crust.irk.ru.
Chuvashova Irina Sergeevna,
candidate of geological and mineralogical sciences,
664003 Irkutsk, st. Lenina, d. 3,
Irkutsk State University, Faculty of Geology,
assistant professor,
664033 Irkutsk, st. Lermontova, d. 128,
Institute of the Earth's Crust SB RAS,
Senior Researcher,
tel.: (3952) 51–16–59,
email: chuvashova@crust.irk.ru.
Abstract. In the western part of the South Baikal Basin, spatial-temporal distribution of earthquake epicenters is characterized by quasi-periodic seismic reactivations. The strongest earthquakes occurred in 1999 (South Baikal, Мw = 6.0), 2008 (Kultuk, Мw = 6.3) and 2020 (Kudara, Мw = 5.4). Since 2013, we have been monitoring the 234U/238U activity ratio (AR4/8) in groundwater as an indicator of crack open/closing that promotes/prevents water circulation in active faults of the basin. From monitoring results, we define the concept of a complete seismogeodynamic cycle as a change from crustal compression to extension occurred during 12 years with a successive increase in seismic hazard levels.
Keywords: 234U/238U, groundwater, earthquake, active fault, Baikal.
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