S.A. Bornyakov a, A.A. Karimova a,d, Y. Guob, I.A. Panteleevc, Y-Q Zhuob, A.A. Dobryninaa, V.A. Sankova,d, D.V. Salkoa, A.N. Shaguna, A.A. Karimovaa,d
aInstitute of the Earth's Crust, Siberian Branch of RAS, Irkutsk, Russia
bInstitute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing, China
cInstitute of Continuous Media Mechanics, Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Perm, Russia
dIrkutsk State University, Irkutsk, Russia
Bornyakov Sergey Alexandrovich,
candidate of geological and mineralogical sciences,
664033 Irkutsk, Lermontov str., d. 128,
Institute of the Earth's Crust SB RAS,
Leading Researcher,
email: bornyak@crust.irk.ru.
Guo Yanshuang,
Doctor of science,
Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing, China,
Researcher,
еmail: guoysh@ies.ac.cn.
Panteleev Ivan Alexeevich,
candidate of geological and mineralogical sciences,
Institute of Continuous Media Mechanics, Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Perm, Russia,
Senior Researcher,
еmail: pia@icmm.ru.
Zhuo Yan-Qun,
Doctor of science,
Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing, China,
Researcher,
еmail: zhuoyq@ies.ac.cn.
Dobrynina Anna Alexandrovna,
candidate of geological and mineralogical sciences,
664033 Irkutsk, Lermontov str., 128,
Institute of the Earth's Crust SB RAS,
Scientific secretary,
еmail: scisecretary@crust.irk.ru.
Sankov Vladimir Anatolevich,
candidate of geological and mineralogical sciences,
664033 Irkutsk, Lermontov str., 128,
Institute of the Earth's Crust SB RAS,
Deputy Director for Science,
664003 Irkutsk, Lenin str., 3,
Irkutsk State University, Faculty of Geology,
Assystent Professor,
еmail: sankov@crust.irk.ru.
Salko Denis Vladimirovich,
664033 Irkutsk, Lermontov str., 128,
Institute of the Earth's Crust SB RAS,
engineer,
еmail: salko@crust.irk.ru.
Shagun Artem Nikolaevich,
candidate of geological and mineralogical sciences,
664033 Irkutsk, Lermontov str., 128,
Institute of the Earth's Crust SB RAS,
Lead Engineer,
еmail: shagun@crust.irk.ru.
Karimova Anastasia Alekseevna,
candidate of geological and mineralogical sciences
664033 Irkutsk, Lermontov str., 128,
Institute of the Earth's Crust SB RAS,
Junior Researcher,
664003 Irkutsk, Lenin str., 3,
Irkutsk State University, Faculty of Geology,
Senior Lecturer,
еmail: geowomen_nasty@mail.ru.
Abstract. This study is focused on analog modeling of the stick-slip process along an existing large fault in an elastic-viscoplastic model subjected to loading at a constant strain rate. Based on our model results and data from (Ma et al., 2012, 2014), we distinguish stable, meta-stable, and meta-instable stages of the stick-slip process (the latter includes the early and late sub-stages). Our experiments show that the fault is periodically reactivated by segmentation. We analysed this mechanism from one fault reactivation to another, and identified regressive and progressive trends of segmentation. The regressive segmentation takes place during the stable and meta-stable stages of the stick-slip process. Under regressive segmentation the number of active segments and their lengths are reduced. The progressive segmentation is initiated at the early meta-instable sub-stage of the stick-slip process. Its activity is desplayed by an increase in the number of active segments to a certain critical density, while their pattern becomes more chaotic. In the late sub-stage, number of segments decreases as they rapidly grow and join with each other to form larger active segments, up to full reactivation of the entire fault.
For comparison with the model results, we interpret rock deformation monitoring records before the Bystroe earthquake. Our analysis confirms specific features of the anomalous rock deformation that are similar to the strain features observed along the model fault during the meta-instable stage. There are evidence to suggest that meta-instability of a fault is a potential candidate to short-term precursor of earthquakes.
Keywords: analogue modeling, stick-slip, fault, segmentation, meta-instable stage, earthquake, precursor.
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