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https://doi.org/10.26516/2541-9641.2026.1.56

EDN: ISMOLT

From Magnetic Storm Control of Weak Earthquakes in the Baikal Rift System to Dominant Seismic Pulses of the Japan-Baikal Geodynamic Corridor: Real-Time Monitoring of Groundwater Oxidation-Reduction Potential in Early 2026

S.V. Rasskazov^1,2, I.A. Aslamov³, S.V. Snopkov^2,4, E.P. Chebykin¹, A.M. Ilyasova¹, I.S. Chuvashova^1,2

¹Institute of the Earth's Crust SB RAS, Irkutsk, Russia

²Irkutsk State University, Irkutsk, Russia

³ Limnological Institute SB RAS, Irkutsk, Russia

⁴Irkutsk National Research Technical University, Irkutsk, Russia

Abstract. The main objective of monitoring the oxidation-reduction potential (ORP) of groundwater at the Kultuk area is to quickly assess the seismogenic state of the earth's crust of the Baikal Rift System (BRS). The paper examines the relationships between variations in the ORP of groundwater and earthquakes during the transition from the control of weak earthquakes by magnetic storms to seismic impulses of the Japan-Baikal Geodynamic Corridor (JBGC) from the time interval of the end of 2025 to the one of the beginning of 2026. It is inferred that magnetic storms that caused weak earthquakes in the BRS and leveled out existing tectonic stress anomalies contributed to the launch of a new series of seismogenic deformations in 2026 in the short seismic impulse regime. Attention is drawn to the generation of the Tankhoy earthquake line in February-March 2026 that might designate the anisotropic pre-seismic state of the crust, similar to those displayed along earthquake lines before strong seismic reactivations: Kultuk in 2008 and Baikal-Khovsgol in 2020–2023.

Keywords: groundwater, monitoring, oxidation-reduction potential, earthquakes, Baikal

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Rasskazov Sergei Vasilevich,

doctor of geological and mineralogical sciences, professor,

664025, Irkutsk, Lenin st., 3,

Irkutsk State University, Faculty of Geology,

Head of Dynamic Geology Char,

664033, Irkutsk, Lermontov st., 128,

Institute of the Earth's Crust SB RAS,

Head of the Laboratory for Isotopic and Geochronological Studies,

tel.: (3952) 51–16–59,

еmail: rassk@crust.irk.ru

Aslamov Ilya Aleksandrovich,

Candidate of physical and mathematical sciences, Senior Researcher,

664033, Irkutsk, Ulan-Batorskaya st., 3,

Limnological Institute SB RAS,

email: ilya_aslamov@bk.ru

Snopkov Sergei Viktorovich,

Candidate of Geological and Mineralogical Sciences,

664025, Irkutsk, Lenin st., 3,

Irkutsk State University, Faculty of Geology,

Associate Professor,

664074, Irkutsk, Kurchatov st., 3,

Siberian School of Geosciences, Irkutsk National Research Technical University,

Leading Researcher,

email: snopkov_serg@mail.ru.

Chebykin Eugene Pavlovich,

Candidate of Chemical Sciences,

664033, Irkutsk, Lermontov st., 128,

Institute of the Earth's Crust SB RAS,

leading specialist,

еmail: epcheb@yandex.ru

Ilyasova Aigul Maratovna,

candidate of geological and mineralogical sciences,

664033, Irkutsk, Lermontov st., 128,

Institute of the Earth's Crust SB RAS,

leading engineer,

email: ila@crust.irk.ru

Chuvashova Irina Sergeevna,

candidate of geological and mineralogical sciences,

664033, Irkutsk, st. Lermontov, 128,

Institute of the Earth's Crust SB RAS,

Senior Researcher,

tel.: (3952) 51–16–59,

email: chuvashova@crust.irk.ru

Article received: 20.03.2026; corrected: 25.03.2026; accepted: 27.03.2026.

FOR CITATION: Rasskazov S.V., Aslamov I.A., Snopkov S.V., Chebykin E.P., Ilyasova A.M., Chuvashova I.S. From magnetic storm control of weak earthquakes in the Baikal Rift System to dominant seismic pulses of the Japan-Baikal geodynamic corridor: real-time monitoring of groundwater oxidation-reduction potential in early 2026 // Geology and Environment. 2026. Vol. 1, No. 1. P. 56–90. DOI 10.26516/2541-9641.2026.1.56. EDN: ISMOLT

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